CLV & Cohort Analysis

Break-Even Retention Goals by Plan Tier

Set plan-specific retention targets by equating discounted lifetime value to acquisition cost. Understand how margin, churn, and discount rate shift the break‑even point.

Break‑even retention for a plan is reached when discounted LTV ______ CAC.

is unrelated to

exceeds by 50%

is lower than

equals

Break‑even is the point where discounted lifetime value matches the acquisition cost. Before that, the plan has not repaid CAC.

All else equal, a plan with higher gross margin requires ______ retention to break even.

lower

undefined

the same

higher

Higher margin increases per‑period contribution, so fewer retained periods are needed to repay CAC. Lower margin does the opposite.

If the monthly discount rate rises, the retention needed to break even generally ______.

becomes irrelevant

decreases

stays identical

increases

Heavier discounting reduces the present value of future cash flows, so more retained months are required to cover CAC.

Which plan type typically lowers the retention needed to reach break‑even, all else equal?

Annual prepaid plans with lower churn

Short‑term pay‑as‑you‑go only

Monthly plans with higher churn

Free trials without commitment

Annual commitments tend to reduce churn versus monthly, improving the speed to repay CAC and lowering break‑even retention.

In a simple subscription model, discounted LTV can be approximated as ARPU × margin ÷ (monthly churn + monthly discount rate). What happens if churn goes up?

LTV falls, so break‑even retention rises

LTV unchanged

Discount rate becomes zero

LTV rises, so break‑even retention falls

Higher churn increases the denominator of the formula, reducing LTV and requiring more retention to reach CAC recovery.

When CAC and margins differ by plan tier, retention goals for break‑even should be set ______.

from a single blended target

per tier, not from a single site‑wide average

only at the channel level

only annually

Per‑tier CAC and unit economics vary; computing plan‑level targets prevents over‑ or under‑investing in specific tiers.

Expansion revenue (e.g., add‑ons or seat growth) generally makes break‑even retention targets ______.

harder to hit because LTV decreases

easier to hit because LTV increases

unrelated to retention

invalid to compute

Upsell and cross‑sell increase contribution over time, raising LTV and shortening the path to CAC payback.

If gross margin declines due to higher variable costs, break‑even retention required will ______.

increase

stay the same

turn negative

decrease

Lower gross margin reduces contribution per period, so more retained periods are needed to cover CAC.

For break‑even analysis on base subscriptions (excluding upsell), which retention measure is most appropriate?

Gross revenue retention (GRR)

Daily active users

ARPU growth rate

Net revenue retention (NRR)

GRR isolates base revenue retention without expansion, matching the repayment of the original CAC on the base plan.

A 12‑month payback policy means you expect the cumulative discounted contribution to meet CAC by month 12. If churn rises, that crossover month will likely ______.

be unchanged

shift later

be undefined

arrive earlier

Higher churn reduces cumulative contribution each month, delaying the point where contributions equal CAC.

Starter

Good start—review the core definitions and formulas, then retake the quiz.

Solid

Nice work—tighten your grasp of edge cases and benchmarking nuance.

Expert!

Outstanding—your CLV and cohort analysis instincts are on point.

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