CLV & Cohort Analysis

CLV Basics: Revenue vs. Profit

Clarify how customer lifetime value changes when you focus on profit instead of top-line revenue. Learn the key levers—margin, retention, discounting, and acquisition costs—to make smarter decisions.

Revenue CLV ignores ______ that reduce cash you actually keep.

channel attributions

pageview bounce rate

variable costs and refunds

inventory turns only

Revenue-based CLV counts gross sales, but profit-based CLV subtracts variable costs like COGS, fees, and refunds. That makes it a better proxy for cash impact.

Profit-based CLV typically multiplies expected revenue by ______ before discounting.

return on ad spend

average order value only

customer satisfaction index

contribution margin %

Contribution margin converts sales into retained value before fixed costs. Using it prevents overestimating cash that remains after fulfilling an order.

When comparing offers, CLV estimates should incorporate a ______ rate to reflect time value of money.

cookie decay

pixel firing

churn acceleration

discount

Discounting recognizes that dollars received in the future are worth less than dollars today. It keeps long tails from overstating value.

If CAC is added, the decision metric becomes CLV minus ______.

gross bookings

inventory carrying cost

refund rate only

customer acquisition cost

Subtracting CAC turns CLV into unit contribution after marketing spend. This framing helps decide how much you can pay to acquire customers profitably.

A higher retention rate generally ______ profit-based CLV, holding margin and CAC constant.

increases

always halves

has no effect

decreases

More periods retained means more expected purchases across the customer lifetime. With constant margin and CAC, value grows with retention.

Using revenue CLV instead of profit CLV tends to ______ channel performance for low-margin products.

perfectly balance

cancel out

overstate

understate

Ignoring margins inflates the perceived value of sales where little is kept after costs. Profit CLV avoids this distortion.

In subscription models, profit CLV often uses ARPU times margin divided by ______.

inventory shrink

NPS

churn rate

CPC

At steady state, expected months = 1/churn for geometric churn. Multiplying ARPU by margin and by expected months approximates profit CLV.

Including upsell and cross-sell typically ______ CLV if retention is unchanged.

raises

lowers

eliminates

randomizes

More revenue per retained period increases lifetime value when margins are positive and retention is stable.

A price cut can lower profit CLV even if orders rise when ______ compresses.

cookie window

impressions

margin

reach

If price reductions shrink unit margin too much, extra orders may not compensate. CLV is sensitive to retained margin per period.

For high-variance cohorts, teams often report CLV as a ______ with a median and confidence interval.

binary flag

single deterministic point only

distribution

server log

Uncertainty-aware CLV communicates range, not just a point estimate, which is more informative for planning and risk management.

Starter

Good start—review margin, CAC, and discounting to translate sales into profit-based CLV.

Solid

Nice—tighten assumptions about retention drivers and variable costs.

Expert!

Excellent—your unit-economics lens will drive smarter growth decisions.

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