CLV & Cohort Analysis

Cohort Lag Metrics: First-Purchase to Second

Measure the time it takes customers to make a second purchase after their first, and use it as an early signal of retention and value. Shorter lags often indicate stronger product‑market fit and healthier cohorts.

The first‑to‑second purchase lag measures the time between a customer’s first order and their ______.

next order

refund request

ad impression

checkout page view

This metric captures the latency to repeat purchase, a leading indicator of retention. It is computed as the difference between first and second order timestamps.

A practical way to summarize lag is to report the median and selected percentiles because lags are typically ______.

left‑skewed

normally distributed

right‑skewed

uniform

Purchase latency often has a long right tail, making robust percentiles more informative than the mean. Medians and IQR reduce sensitivity to outliers.

Customers without a second order during the analysis window are best treated as ______ observations.

winsorized

left‑truncated

right‑censored

fully observed

Right censoring acknowledges that the second purchase may occur later than the window. This avoids biasing lag statistics downward.

Segmenting lag by acquisition month and plotting the share returning within 7, 14, and 30 days is an example of a ______ view.

cohort

synthetic control

case‑control

cross‑sectional

Grouping by start period reveals how comparable cohorts behave over time. It helps isolate seasonal or strategy effects on early repeat behavior.

When calculating lag, which timestamp pair do you use?

subscription renewal date and sign‑up date

first order time and second order time

first session time and any order time

campaign click time and first order time

Lag is defined strictly by the first and second purchase timestamps. Other events provide context but do not define this metric.

If returns or cancellations void the second order, the correct handling for lag is to ______.

exclude or recompute using the next valid purchase

keep the original second order date

double the lag

set lag to zero

Invalidated orders should not count as repeat purchases. Recomputing ensures lag reflects real retained revenue behavior.

Shorter early‑repeat lag generally correlates with higher long‑term ______ at the cohort level.

retention

bot traffic

page speed

discount rate

Fast second purchases tend to indicate stronger product fit and habit formation. It is a correlation, not proof of causation.

To compare lag across geographies with different weekends/holidays, you should normalize using ______ calendars when possible.

local

ISO week exclusively

retailer fiscal

UTC only

Local calendars can affect shopping cadence. Aligning to local patterns improves interpretability of lag differences.

A common dashboard choice is to bucket lag into 0–7, 8–14, and 15+ days. These are examples of ______.

latency bands

affinity clusters

lift curves

gini bands

Latency bands simplify monitoring of early repeat behavior. Teams can tune band edges to their category dynamics.

One caveat with first‑to‑second lag is that deep discounting can shorten lags while harming ______.

pixel deduplication

server uptime

contribution margin

inventory count

A faster second purchase is not automatically better if it requires heavy incentives that erode profitability.. A faster second purchase is not automatically better if it requires heavy incentives that erode profitability..

Starter

You’ve grasped the basics of first‑to‑second purchase latency—review how it’s calculated and why right‑censoring matters.

Solid

Nice work—start segmenting lag by cohort and track 7/14/30‑day bands to catch early retention shifts.

Expert!

Outstanding—use lag with hazard/retention curves and margin checks to turn faster repeats into profitable growth.

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