Predictive / AI-Driven Analytics

Lift & Gain Charts: Measuring Model Uplift

Test your ability to read and validate lift and cumulative gain charts. Learn what early decile concentration means for practical targeting.

A lift chart primarily shows ______.

feature importance for the top 10 variables

the absolute profit at each price point

the model’s calibration intercept and slope

how much better the model ranks positives than random across deciles

Lift compares targeted capture versus a random baseline. Higher early-decile lift indicates strong ranking power.

A steep cumulative gains curve in the first deciles means ______.

many positives are concentrated among the top-ranked cases

the model is perfectly calibrated

regularization strength is too high

there is class balance across all deciles

Early separation indicates efficient targeting. Gains curves cumulate captured positives as you move through ranked groups.

Baseline in lift/gain charts usually corresponds to ______.

random selection performance for the same population

the best achievable model on the dataset

training AUC multiplied by 100

a naive model predicting all zeros

The diagonal or flat baseline represents random targeting. Lift is measured relative to this reference.

If the model’s lift at top 10% is 3.0, this implies ______.

recall at 10% equals 30% exactly

AUC must be 0.90 or higher

targeting the top decile captures about three times more positives than random

precision is exactly 0.30 in that decile

Lift is a ratio versus random, not a direct precision or recall value. It indicates concentration of positives in the ranked slice.

Cumulative gain at 20% equals 60% means ______.

selecting the top 20% of cases captures about 60% of all positives

calibration slope is 0.60

the false positive rate is 0.40

the F1 score is 0.60

Gains read off fraction of positives captured as selection grows. It is a recall-like measure along the ranked list.

Lift and gains are most meaningful when ______.

tuning thresholds for perfectly balanced datasets only

measuring causal uplift in randomized experiments

estimating absolute revenue impact without cost info

evaluating rank-ordering for targeted actions under class imbalance

They focus on ranking quality and are powerful with rare positives. Profit requires costs and values in addition to ranking.

Why plot both train and test gains curves?

to guarantee monotonic feature effects

to compute a better baseline diagonal

to spot overfitting if train curves are strong but test curves collapse

to remove the need for cross-validation

Divergence between train and test indicates poor generalization. Consistent curves suggest stable ranking power.

When two models cross on a gains chart, a sensible next step is ______.

compare business metrics at actionable selection sizes

pick the model with the higher AUC regardless of segment

discard both models immediately

retrain using only the top decile data

Crossing curves can dominate at different depths. Evaluate at realistic targeting fractions to choose the better option.

Decile stability monitoring over time helps because ______.

it replaces the need for recalibration entirely

drift can erode early-decile lift even if AUC changes modestly

it makes class imbalance irrelevant

it only works for regression models

Lift is sensitive to ranking at the top slices where action happens. Tracking decile metrics reveals practical degradation.

A perfect gains curve would ______.

imply zero false positives at all thresholds

jump to 100% of positives within the first small fraction of cases

track exactly along the diagonal baseline

show constant slope across all deciles

A perfect ranker places all positives first. Real models approach but do not reach this ideal.

Starter

You’re getting the idea—revisit how baselines and deciles work.

Solid

Good ranking intuition—verify early‑decile lift on out‑of‑sample data.

Expert!

Superb—turn gains into business impact with cost‑aware selection.

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