Predictive / AI-Driven Analytics

Neural Nets for Demand Forecasting

Neural networks can capture nonlinearity and complex seasonality that trip up simple baselines. Discover the architectures and tricks that turn raw history into reliable demand forecasts.

Compared with ARIMA, an LSTM can naturally learn ______ relationships over long lags.

static categorical

monotone decreasing cost

nonlinear

linear only

Recurrent networks handle nonlinear dependencies in sequences. This helps when demand responds to complex patterns and promotions.

A practical trick for intermittent demand is to model zeros and positives separately, often called ______.

beam search

max pooling

two‑stage or zero‑inflated modeling

label smoothing

A classification step predicts occurrence, then a regression predicts size. It reduces bias when many periods have zero sales.

To capture day‑of‑week and holiday effects in a net, you can use ______ encodings.

SHA‑1 hashes of dates

grayscale image filters

learned embeddings for calendar features

random one‑hot noise

Embeddings compactly represent high‑cardinality time features. They let the network learn similarities like adjacent weekdays.

Temporal Convolutional Networks differ from standard CNNs by using ______ kernels.

2D image

causal (no peeking into the future)

non‑causal bidirectional by default

complex‑valued FFT only

Causal padding ensures output at time t depends only on past inputs. That keeps forecasts valid for real‑time use.

When series counts are huge, a global model learns across items and a ______ layer adapts per item.

manual spreadsheet

QR code

GAN discriminator

small item‑specific head or embedding

Global nets share structure and borrow strength across products. Light per‑item parameters capture residual idiosyncrasies.

For multi‑horizon forecasting, the seq2seq approach outputs ______.

calendar ICS files

raw gradients

a vector of future steps in one forward pass

only the next step

Sequence‑to‑sequence decoders generate multiple horizons jointly. This avoids error accumulation from iterative one‑step rollouts.

A common stabilization for multiplicative seasonality before feeding a net is a ______ transform.

z‑score then square

log

min‑max inverse only

square

Logs turn multiplicative effects into additive ones. That makes optimization easier and tames variance spikes.

Dropout during training primarily helps with ______.

calendar generation

regularization to reduce overfitting

batching across GPUs

data encryption

Randomly dropping units forces robust representations. It improves generalization on unseen time windows.

Teacher forcing in sequence models means ______ during training.

using only predicted values

freezing all embeddings

doubling the learning rate

feeding the true previous value into the decoder

Ground‑truth context stabilizes early training. At inference you switch to the model’s own outputs step by step.

To evaluate retail demand nets reliably, you should report scale‑free metrics like ______.

BLEU score

raw RMSE only

sMAPE or MASE

accuracy on shuffled data

Scale‑free metrics allow comparison across items with different volumes. They’re robust when units vary widely.

Starter

You know the basics of sequence nets—keep practicing with real calendars.

Solid

Solid modeling instincts; refine embeddings and loss choices.

Expert!

Expert! You can design and ship neural forecasts with confidence.

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