Consumer Behaviour

Prospect Theory Basics

Prospect Theory explains how real people value gains and losses in risky choices.
Take this quiz to see whether you can predict behavior beyond rational utility models.

Who first introduced Prospect Theory in 1979?

Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky

Herbert Simon

Dan Ariely

Kahneman and Tversky's seminal 1979 paper laid the foundation for Prospect Theory. Their work earned Kahneman the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics.

Prospect Theory states that people evaluate outcomes relative to a ______ point.

maximum utility

market

reference

average

A reference point anchors perception; gains and losses are judged as deviations from it, not in absolute terms.

Loss aversion implies that the pain of losing $100 is roughly ______ the joy of gaining $100.

four times

twice

half

equal to

Empirical estimates place the loss‑aversion coefficient (λ) around 2, meaning losses loom about twice as large as gains.

The Prospect Theory value function is typically ______ for gains and convex for losses.

convex

concave

exponential

linear

Concavity for gains reflects diminishing sensitivity, while convexity for losses reflects risk‑seeking to avoid losses.

According to Prospect Theory, people tend to ______ small probabilities.

treat accurately

overweight

underweight

ignore

The probability‑weighting function inflates the impact of rare events, explaining demand for lotteries and insurance.

Which behavioral bias is MOST directly explained by loss aversion in Prospect Theory?

Endowment effect

Confirmation bias

Availability bias

Anchoring effect

Owners value an item more than non‑owners because giving it up is framed as a loss.

Prospect Theory predicts risk‑______ behavior for gains and risk‑seeking for losses.

loving

neutral

averse

seeking

The S‑shaped value curve makes marginal utility of gains diminish, encouraging risk aversion in the gains domain.

The lambda (λ) parameter in Prospect Theory specifically captures the degree of ______.

loss aversion

anchoring strength

time discounting

probability weighting

λ scales the loss part of the value function, making it steeper than the gain side.

Framing a 90% survival rate as a 10% mortality rate can reverse choices due to ______.

hyperbolic discounting

priming

mere‑exposure

framing effect

Prospect Theory shows that identical outcomes framed as gains or losses trigger different risk attitudes.

Combining loss aversion with probability weighting yields the ______ pattern of risk attitudes.

decoy

paradoxical

fourfold

dual‑system

People become risk‑seeking for low‑probability gains and high‑probability losses, and vice versa for the opposite quadrants.

Starter

Loss aversion still feels fuzzy—revisit the value curve before wagering decisions.

Solid

Strong effort! Sharpen your grasp of probability weighting to move to mastery.

Expert!

Outstanding—your insights into framing and reference dependence show expert fluency.

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