Predictive / AI-Driven Analytics

Uplift Modeling for Targeted Campaigns

Turn campaigns from broad blasts into precise, incremental impact machines. Check how well you can rank for lift, read Qini curves, and avoid sleeping dogs.

A negative uplift score for a customer suggests the best campaign decision is to ______.

Suppress the treatment for that customer

Randomly assign them to treatment

Increase discount depth immediately

Exclude them from all future analytics

Negative uplift indicates harm or cost from treatment. Suppression prevents worsening outcomes or wasting spend..

Which curve is commonly used to evaluate uplift models by plotting incremental gains versus the targeted fraction?

Cumulative lift chart for probability models

Qini curve (or uplift curve)

Precision–recall curve

ROC curve

Qini and uplift curves compare treated versus control outcomes across ranked deciles. ROC/PR focus on classification without counterfactual contrast..

The two-model approach for uplift trains ______.

A clustering model to group lookalike audiences

Only a propensity model and no outcome models

Separate models for treated and control groups and uses the difference in predictions

A single model with treatment as a feature and ignores interactions

Two-model or T-learner estimates outcomes under each condition then differences them. Propensity alone does not yield treatment effects..

Including treatment–feature interactions in a single model supports uplift because it ______.

Eliminates the need for a control group

Forces linear relationships for interpretability

Removes multicollinearity among features

Captures heterogeneous treatment effects across segments

Interactions let the model vary effects by covariate values. They do not replace controls or guarantee linearity..

Which evaluation design best isolates incremental impact in a live campaign?

Randomized control group held out from treatment

Pre–post comparison of treated users only

Year-over-year comparison without controls

Cross-validation on historical treated users

Randomized controls provide the cleanest counterfactual. Pre–post and YOY can be confounded by time-varying factors..

Uplift models often sort customers into ‘persuadables’, ‘sure things’, ‘lost causes’, and ‘sleeping dogs’. ‘Sleeping dogs’ are ______.

Never respond under any condition

Harmed by the treatment and should be avoided

Always respond regardless of treatment

Ideal for maximum discounting

Sleeping dogs have negative treatment effect; targeting them can backfire. Sure things and lost causes have near-zero incremental gain..

Why is propensity score weighting sometimes combined with uplift modeling on observational data?

To remove the need for model calibration

To increase class imbalance for stronger signals

To reduce selection bias by balancing covariates between treated and control groups

To transform continuous outcomes into binary labels

Weighting aims to make groups comparable as if randomized. It does not change the outcome type or guarantee calibration..

A Qini coefficient close to zero typically indicates that the model ______.

Has perfect discrimination at low recall

Is overfitting the control group only

Is miscalibrated but still maximizes uplift

Provides little incremental targeting value over random assignment

Near-zero Qini means uplift ranking is not better than random. Overfitting and calibration are separate properties..

Budget-optimized targeting should prioritize segments with ______.

Highest expected uplift per unit cost

Largest population size regardless of effect

Lowest model uncertainty

Highest baseline conversion rate

Optimizing uplift per cost maximizes incremental outcomes per spend. Large or high-baseline segments may yield less incremental gain..

When treatment spillover occurs between users (interference), uplift estimates can be biased because ______.

Bootstrap resampling is impossible

One unit’s outcome depends on other units’ treatment status

The AUC metric becomes undefined

The model cannot handle continuous outcomes

Interference violates the no-interference assumption (SUTVA). Standard estimates assume independent potential outcomes..

Starter

Nice start—focus on how treatment and control differ and why Qini curves matter.

Solid

Solid command of uplift concepts—dial in cost per uplift point for budget decisions.

Expert!

Expert: you can deploy, monitor, and optimize for incremental outcomes at scale.

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