CLV & Cohort Analysis

Using Gamma-Gamma for Monetary Value Prediction

Estimate average spend per transaction using the Gamma‑Gamma model and pair it with a frequency model to project CLV. Learn the key assumptions, data requirements, and how to interpret parameters safely.

The Gamma‑Gamma model estimates a customer’s ______ per transaction.

sessions per visit

average monetary value

days‑to‑reorder

probability of churn

Gamma‑Gamma models spending conditional on making a purchase. It provides the mean spend per transaction.

A key assumption of Gamma‑Gamma is that monetary value is ______ of purchase frequency given customer heterogeneity.

a linear function

independent

monotonically increasing

the same across all users

The independence assumption allows separate modeling of frequency and value. Violations can bias CLV estimates.

Gamma‑Gamma typically models each customer’s average spend using a ______ distribution at the population level.

normal

poisson

gamma

bernoulli

The model assumes heterogeneity in spending means follows a gamma distribution across customers.. The model assumes heterogeneity in spending means follows a gamma distribution across customers..

To compute CLV, Gamma‑Gamma is often paired with a ______ model for purchase frequency.

BG/NBD

logistic regression

HMM only

ARIMA

BG/NBD predicts number of future transactions, while Gamma‑Gamma predicts value per transaction. Together they produce revenue forecasts.

Before fitting, transaction values should be cleaned to be ______ of taxes, shipping, and returns where appropriate.

gross

net

indexed arbitrarily

duplicated

Using net realized value aligns model outputs with economic contribution rather than nominal checkout totals.. Using net realized value aligns model outputs with economic contribution rather than nominal checkout totals..

A practical data requirement for stable Gamma‑Gamma estimates is that customers have ______ monetary observations.

exactly one

zero

a fixed three

more than one

Multiple transactions improve the reliability of a customer’s average spend estimate. Singletons add high variance.

If high‑frequency buyers also spend much more per order, the independence assumption may be violated, causing CLV to be ______.

unchanged

guaranteed conservative

biased

exact

Strong correlation between frequency and value breaks a core assumption, distorting combined forecasts.. Strong correlation between frequency and value breaks a core assumption, distorting combined forecasts..

When reporting CLV, teams often multiply forecast revenue by contribution margin and may apply a ______ rate.

burst

discount

hash

sampling

Discounting maps projected cash flows to present value, aligning with finance practices.. Discounting maps projected cash flows to present value, aligning with finance practices..

Holdout evaluation for Gamma‑Gamma commonly compares predicted vs. actual spend using metrics like ______.

MAPE or RMSE

ROC‑AUC

mAP@K

BLEU

Regression accuracy metrics gauge how well predicted monetary values match realized spend.. Regression accuracy metrics gauge how well predicted monetary values match realized spend..

Parameter interpretation: in many parameterizations, larger shape parameters (e.g., p and q) imply ______ dispersion in spending means across customers.

infinite

undefined

lower

higher

As shape increases, the gamma distribution tightens, indicating less heterogeneity in average spend.. As shape increases, the gamma distribution tightens, indicating less heterogeneity in average spend..

Starter

Good start—revisit the Gamma‑Gamma assumption set and how it pairs with BG/NBD for CLV.

Solid

Strong—clean net monetary values and validate forecasts with holdouts and error metrics.

Expert!

Excellent—stress‑test the independence assumption and align CLV with margin and discounting for finance.

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