CLV & Cohort Analysis

Contract vs. Non-Contract CLV Models

Contrast fixed-term contract churn with open-ended, non-contract purchase behavior. See how model assumptions change what retention and value mean.

In contract CLV settings, churn is typically observed at ______.

SKU-level discounts

fixed renewal points

every click event

random minutes

Contract businesses record churn at renewal boundaries. Open-ended models assume time-to-event can happen continuously.

A classic non-contract purchasing model for order arrivals is ______.

naive Bayes classifier

BG/NBD-style models

simple coin toss

linear regression only

BG/NBD variants capture repeat-buy counts and dropout. They are widely used for open-ended, non-contract purchases.

In non-contract CLV, we often estimate dropout using a latent state because ______.

inventory is infinite

prices never change

churn is unobserved without explicit cancellations

billing cycles are identical

Customers simply stop buying, so churn is not directly declared. Latent dropout accounts for that uncertainty.

Which cash flow discounting approach is appropriate for both contract and non-contract CLV?

never discount future profits

discount only revenue but not costs

use negative discount rates by default

apply a periodic discount rate to forecasted net cash flows

CLV requires discounting to present value. Both settings discount expected net cash flows over time.

Contract CLV models commonly use survival analysis because ______.

prices are fixed forever

A/B tests are impossible

basket size is always one

time until churn follows a duration process

Time-to-event methods map well to renewals and cancellations. They model hazards and retention curves directly.

A practical difference is that non-contract CLV must model both purchase frequency and ______.

ad viewability rate

server CPU usage

monetary value per order

page scroll depth

Open-ended retail requires frequency and spend to estimate value. Contract settings typically bill a plan price per period.

For contract CLV, an observed downgrade to a lower plan most directly affects ______.

inventory carrying cost at suppliers

cookie length

session duration only

expected cash flows per renewal period

Plan mix drives revenue per retained customer. Lower tiers reduce per-period net cash flows even when retained.

Non-contract models often treat customers as active or inactive because ______.

it guarantees normal errors

it removes the need for data

it simplifies dropout representation between purchases

it doubles the conversion rate

Binary activity captures latent churn risk. It is a practical abstraction between sporadic transactions.

In contract settings, a grace period after renewal failure helps CLV by ______.

blocking upgrades

recovering involuntary churn from payment issues

inflating COGS

deleting history

Dunning and payment retries can save accounts that would otherwise churn. That improves realized retention and value.

When moving from contract to non-contract CLV, a common pitfall is ______.

using a time axis

copying renewal-based churn logic into transaction data

discounting cash flows

tracking cohorts

Renewal churn does not exist in open-ended retail data. You must infer dropout from behavior instead.

Starter

Great start—review how contract renewals differ from open-ended dropouts.

Solid

You read models well; refine discounting and dropout assumptions.

Expert!

Masterful grasp of contract and non-contract CLV tradeoffs.

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