CLV & Cohort Analysis

Contribution Margin in Lifetime Value Models

Revenue alone can mislead lifetime value calculations when costs vary by order. Probe how contribution margin and CAC change payback and CLV decisions.

Contribution‑margin CLV sums discounted ______ each period before subtracting CAC.

top‑line revenue only

fixed corporate overhead

gross profit after variable costs

impressions purchased

Margin‑based CLV uses revenue minus variable costs per period, then discounts and subtracts CAC.

A simple net CLV formula is Σ_t [(Revenue_t − VariableCosts_t) / (1+r)^t] − ______.

gross margin %

breakage liability

customer acquisition cost

cost of equity alone

Net CLV deducts CAC after discounting contribution margin over time.

Why exclude fixed costs when ranking channels by CLV?

GAAP forbids fixed costs

fixed costs equal zero by definition

finance can’t model fixed costs

fixed costs don’t change with customer count and can mask unit economics

Ranking by contribution isolates incremental unit economics; fixed overhead is shared and not incremental at the margin.

If return rates rise, margin‑based CLV typically ______.

rises due to higher volume

becomes undefined

stays unchanged by accounting rules

falls because refunds reduce retained profit

Returns reverse revenue and often incur shipping or restocking costs, shrinking contribution margin and CLV.

Payback period on CAC is reached when cumulative discounted margin ______.

hits gross revenue

exceeds fixed overhead

matches ARPU

first equals or exceeds CAC

Payback occurs the moment discounted contribution recovers the initial acquisition cost.

Which cost is typically treated as variable in margin‑based CLV?

executive salaries

payment processing fees tied to order value

office rent

annual audit fee

Processor fees scale with sales and should be netted against revenue in contribution.

In multi‑product CLV, segment‑level margins matter because ______.

margins fix attribution bias automatically

discounting is no longer needed

SKU IDs ensure fairness

different mixes of high‑COGS items change lifetime profitability

Product mix drives contribution; segments buying low‑margin goods yield lower CLV even at equal revenue.

To stress‑test CLV, analysts often run ______ analyses on margin and churn.

k‑means with k=1

Fourier transform

graph coloring

sensitivity or scenario

Scenario and sensitivity tests reveal how CLV responds to margin or churn shocks.

Revenue‑based CLV can mislead budgeting because it ignores ______.

click‑through rate

variable fulfillment and service costs

brand guidelines

ad creative length

Ignoring variable costs overstates value and may misallocate budget versus margin‑based decisions.

When discount rate increases, the present value of distant margin ______.

always becomes negative

is unaffected

increases linearly

decreases, reducing long‑horizon CLV

Higher discounting penalizes future cash flows more, lowering present value of later periods.

Starter

Reground in variable cost components and unit economics.

Solid

Solid—now incorporate CAC and payback thresholds.

Expert!

Excellent margin-aware CLV mastery—ready for board review.

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