CLV & Cohort Analysis

DCF vs. Simple Sum: Discounting CLV Cashflows

Turn projected margins into present value by discounting cashflows over time. See why period alignment, rates, and horizons matter in CLV math.

Compared with a simple sum of future margins, discounted CLV multiplies each period by ______.

total revenue to date

a discount factor such as 1/(1+r)^t aligned to the cashflow timing

an average margin across all cohorts only

the cumulative churn through period t

DCF weights cashflows by time value using period-consistent factors. It does not replace discounting with churn or totals.

To convert an annual discount rate r to an equivalent monthly rate, use ______.

r_month = r / 12 exactly in all cases

r_month = (1 + r)^(1/12) – 1

r_month = 12 * r

r_month = sqrt(r) – 1

Compounding dictates the (1+r)^(1/12)-1 relationship. Dividing by 12 is a linear approximation, not exact under compounding.

If cashflow projections are in nominal terms that include inflation, the discount rate should be ______.

zero to avoid bias

a nominal rate consistent with the inflation in those cashflows

a real rate regardless of inflation

any positive rate since CLV is relative

Discount rates must match the cashflow basis (nominal vs. real). Mixing bases misstates present value.

When churn is modeled monthly and billing is monthly, discounting should be applied ______.

only to months after payback

annually for simplicity

at the same monthly cadence as the cashflows

once at the end of the horizon only

Aligning discount periods with cashflow timing preserves accuracy. End-only discounting or misaligned periods distort NPV.

Imposing a finite CLV horizon (e.g., 24–48 months) primarily helps to ______.

guarantee payback within a year

remove the need for discounting entirely

artificially inflate CLV estimates

limit reliance on uncertain far-future assumptions and sparse data

Capping the horizon reduces model risk. It does not inflate value or replace discounting.

If customers prepay annually instead of monthly, the CLV (NPV) will generally ______.

stay identical regardless of timing

become undefined without churn

increase because earlier cash reduces discounting drag

decrease because fewer payments are recorded

Earlier cashflows are discounted less, raising NPV if total margin is unchanged. Timing matters in DCF.

Under continuous compounding, a cashflow at time t is discounted by ______.

r^t

exp(−r * t)

1 − r * t

1/(1 + r)

Continuous compounding uses e^(−rt). Linear or single-period factors do not capture continuous time value.

A firm’s discount rate for CLV should reflect ______.

a fixed 10% rate for all firms

the ad platform’s target ROAS

the median industry CLV

the opportunity cost and risk of the cashflows being valued

The discount rate is a capital cost/hurdle that matches risk. Platform targets or fixed rules do not reflect firm-specific economics.

As the discount rate increases, the present value of distant cashflows will ______.

decrease only for the first few periods

remain unchanged

increase uniformly

decrease more sharply than near-term cashflows

Higher r shrinks distant value most because compounding acts over more periods.

If retention and margin stabilize after month T, a terminal-value approximation can use ______.

the simple sum without discounting

a geometric series for steady-state margin and retention beyond T

the maximum monthly margin repeated forever

ignoring all cashflows after T by default

Steady-state cashflows can be approximated by a discounted geometric tail. Dropping the tail or ignoring discounting misvalues CLV.

Starter

You recognize the need to discount future margins.

Solid

You align periods and rates and avoid common CLV pitfalls.

Expert!

You handle rate choice, horizons, and sensitivity like a pro.

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